Population Growth in Most States Outpaced Long-Term Trends in 2024

State population growth has steadily accelerated from the record lows of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 42 states’ populations rising faster in 2024 than they did over the preceding 15 years (2009 to 2024). That is the highest number of states to outpace their long-term trends in at least a decade—an uptick that runs counter to the long-term slowing of population growth affecting most states. Even so, population-related risks to fiscal prosperity remain widespread.

Population change is the difference between new residents, including newcomers from other states and abroad and babies, and those who died or moved away. In 2020, net migration from other states and abroad overtook natural change—the difference between births and deaths—as the leading factor in population gains and losses nationally and in most states. And by 2024, domestic and international migration had become the primary driver of growth in every state except Alaska.

International migration has been on the rise since 2021, and from July 2023 to July 2024, the increase in immigrants helped nearly every state exceed their long-term trends in population growth. Florida had the highest rate of international migration, which drove the state’s overall population growth to 2.04%, the highest of any state. After Florida, international migrants contributed the most to population growth in Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Texas, and Washington.

The uptick in immigration had a particularly strong impact on the Northeast, which had been the nation’s slowest-growing region from 2009 to 2024. The region, which is home to some of the oldest states in the country and a concentration of states with the lowest birth rates, exemplifies the broader trends of an aging population and declining fertility. But in 2024, median population growth in the Northeast outpaced that of the Midwest and West thanks to a spike in newcomers from abroad.

The West recorded the slowest median annual population growth in 2024, a sharp contrast from its long-term position as the fastest-growing region. Although many Western states topped the national ranks last year, Hawaii, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wyoming fell near the bottom, bringing down the regional median. Meanwhile, states in the Midwest continued to rank among the slowest growing in the country, with nine of the region’s 12 states growing slower than the 50-state median—though no Midwest states fell into the bottom 10.

The South had the fastest median growth rate in 2024 and was the only region that had more residents move in from other parts of the country than moved out. The region has been the fastest-growing since 2021, benefiting from a pandemic-era jump in domestic migration. However, state-to-state movements and the associated population growth have slowed in the South as a whole and in most states in the region compared with 2022 and 2023.

State highlights

Population changes from July 2023 to July 2024 show:

• Population grew fastest in Florida (2.04%), followed by Texas (1.83%), Utah (1.75%), South Carolina (1.69%), and Nevada (1.65%).
• Only eight states grew slower than their long-term trends: Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, and Vermont.
• Three states lost residents, though the declines were negligible: Vermont (-0.03%), West Virginia (-0.03%), and Mississippi (-0.004%).
• Population grew the slowest in Louisiana (0.21%), Hawaii (0.33%), and Maine (0.38%).
• Seven states had their strongest annual growth rates of the millennium: Connecticut (0.88%), Illinois (0.54%), Iowa (0.72%), Massachusetts (0.98%), Michigan (0.57%), New Jersey (1.29%), and Ohio (0.5%).

Long-term trends

Whereas short-term volatility often obscures fundamental underlying population dynamics, long-term trends can help illuminate states’ demographic trajectories. For example, the recent uptick in annual growth rates probably reflects a post-pandemic recalibration and a temporary increase in immigration rather than a structural shift. Faster population growth in 2023 and 2024 runs contrary to the widespread slowdowns that have characterized population growth in most states and the country for decades. Long-term trends are better understood through 15-year compound annual growth rates, which measure the constant pace that population would have had to change each year starting in 2009 to reach its 2024 total.

Over the past 15 years, the 50-state median population growth rate was 0.51% a year, and three states lost residents over that time. West Virginia’s population declined by just under 78,000 since mid-2009, equal to 0.29% annually. Illinois’ shrank by about 87,000, or 0.05% a year, and Mississippi lost about 16,000 people, or 0.04% a year.

Growth over the 15 years was especially sluggish in the Northeast and Midwest. Seven of the 10 states with populations that grew most slowly or declined are in those regions.

The fastest-growing states were predominantly in the South and West. For more than a half-century, people have gravitated toward Sun Belt states, drawn by employment opportunities, as well as lower costs of living and warmer climates compared with other regions. States with fast-growing populations typically have attendant strong labor force growth, which fuels economic activity and helps generate tax revenue to fund any increased spending on infrastructure, education, and other government services necessary to meet the needs of new residents.

Long-term state highlights

A comparison of 15-year population trends, based on each state’s compound annual growth rate between July 2009 and July 2024, shows that:

• Population grew the fastest in Idaho (the equivalent of 1.7% a year), Utah (1.69%), Texas (1.56%), and Florida (1.52%). Each of these states added people at approximately three times the 50-state median rate.
• Among the top 15 states, North Dakota (1.21%) was the only one not in the South or West. The state owes its strong long-term growth rate to the mid-2010s oil boom, which attracted out-of-state workers. But in recent years, North Dakota’s population growth has been slower following a drop in oil prices.
• Population growth was the slowest in Louisiana and Michigan (both 0.16%), New York (0.19%), Ohio (0.2%), and Connecticut and Pennsylvania (both 0.21%).

Drivers of population change

For most of the 15 years ending in 2024, 50-state population growth was driven by natural increase, when birth rates surpass deaths. But since the baby boom of 1946 to 1964, birth rates have generally been declining and the country has aged, which together mean that migration—domestic and international—now plays a much more significant role in whether state populations shrink or grow than it did in the past.

In 2020, net migration became the main driver of population gains and losses nationally and in most states. Elevated death rates associated with the COVID-19 pandemic combined with already declining birth rates led to deaths outpacing births in more than half of states in 2021. The nation’s birth-to-death ratio remains near all-time lows despite improving over the past two years thanks to falling death rates as the pandemic faded. In 2024, deaths exceeded births in 17 states, most significantly in Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and West Virginia.

Since the pandemic, the gap between the fastest- and slowest-growing states has steadily widened, fueled by the end of restrictions on people movement across borders and by immigration that rose to well above pre-pandemic levels. Rates of domestic migration surged in 2021, as people relocated at high rates from states with large metropolitan areas, such as New York and Illinois, to less densely populated states, including South Dakota and Idaho.

However, the jump in domestic migration seems to have peaked in 2022 and has since lost some of its intensity. Furthermore, the increase in immigration is projected to slow dramatically in the next three years, and the current federal administration’s proposed immigration policies add uncertainty to the complex mix of economic, policy, and geopolitical trends that shape migration patterns.

A look ahead

Historic trends also can help states map out the future. Every 10 years, the U.S. Census Bureau provides an official count of state populations, most recently as of April 1, 2020. University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service uses these counts, supplemented by other Census data, to estimate how state demographics may change in the decades to come.

According to the center’s projections, growth is likely to remain tepid through 2040 with the national population forecasted to grow at about the same pace from 2020 to 2030 as the prior decade—already the slowest on record—before dropping to new lows from 2030 to 2040. In the 2020s, 31 states may face population slowdowns compared with the previous decade, and the number climbs to 45 in the next decade. The Census Bureau also projects that nationally, population growth will remain moderate at best and largely attributes that forecast to declining fertility rates combined with rising death rates as baby boomers age.

The composition of state populations by age not only helps explain the projected growth or decline in population, but also allows for a more nuanced understanding of how population shifts may affect future state budgets. Each state’s age distribution will bring a combination of risks and opportunities. For example, a state with a growing senior population may face fiscal issues ranging from drops in income and sales tax revenue to increased health care and pension costs. These types of challenges may be lessened in states that are also projected to have growing populations of 25- to 64-year-olds (e.g., Utah and Texas), which typically translates to a boost in the labor force and in the number of people who, through their taxes, help cover the public costs associated with aging residents. But an expanding working-age population may result in issues of its own, including those related to housing availability and cost.

Why Pew assesses population change

Population trends are tied to states’ finances, with demographic changes affecting both revenue and spending. More people usually means more workers and consumers contributing to economic activity as they take jobs and buy goods and services, which generates more tax revenue. A growing economy, in turn, can attract even more workers and their families. But a rapidly expanding population can also strain government resources by pushing up housing costs, overburdening transit and other infrastructure, and increasing demand for public services.

On the other hand, a shrinking or slow-growing population can be both a cause and an effect of weakened economic prospects. Less economic activity can limit state revenue collections. And although a smaller population can lead to a reduction in some spending, it also means fewer residents are available to help cover the costs of long-standing commitments, such as debt and state employee retirement benefits. The size of a state’s population, and annual changes to it, also factor into how much it will receive from some federal grants.

Pew tracks population changes over the short and long terms to shed light on different ways that populations affect states’ fiscal conditions. In the near term, annual population shifts can affect revenue collections and spending while long-term demographic trends play a significant role in shaping states’ overall economic and fiscal trajectories. State officials study population trends, along with other measures, to forecast revenue streams and demand for services and inform budgeting and long-term fiscal planning.

Joanna Biernacka-Lievestro is a manager and Alexandre Fall is a senior associate with The Pew Charitable Trusts’ Fiscal 50 project.