World leaders and civil society representatives gathering in Baku, Azerbaijan, for their annual climate policy negotiations face a grim challenge: how to stem greenhouse gas emissions and reverse planetary warming, and how to pay for it, before Earth passes a point of no return on climate change.
The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which runs 11–22 November, comes amid a narrowing window of opportunity to realize the goals of the Paris Agreement, the landmark 2015 U.N. climate pact. This year’s negotiations also arrive at a time of intensifying climate impacts – record heatwaves, devastating floods, hurricanes, wildfires and other extreme weather events that have become unsettlingly familiar.
Recent science highlights the stark reality: Governments are significantly off track in their efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels, a goal set in the Paris Agreement.
As it stands, humankind is on track for warming between 2.6°C and 3.1°C (roughly between 4.7°F and 5.6°F), according to the U.N. Environment Programme’s “Emissions Gap Report.” And when it comes to impact on life on Earth, every fraction of a degree matters. Every increment above a 1.5°C rise will manifest in larger natural disasters and irreversible damage to people and nature.
To close the emissions gap – which in turn would limit warming – governments must take sustained and aggressive action. They can redouble their efforts to do this at COP29 through stronger climate commitments, known as nationally determined contributions, to the Paris Agreement.
Here are three key negotiating themes to watch for at COP29:
The new collective quantified goal (NCQG) is the paramount negotiating issue at this year’s COP. It is meant to be a financial commitment to fund climate action, yet it’s much more than just a number. What’s at stake is the capacity for the global community, particularly developing nations, to actively engage in and sustain climate efforts with more funding from developed countries. The original finance goal – which governments agreed to in 2009 – called for $100 billion in annual funding. At the Paris COP in 2015, governments committed to revamp the goal by 2025, which is why they must complete those talks in Azerbaijan. The NCQG aims to reimagine climate finance by setting a more responsive, meaningful target for funding.
The NCQG, if agreed, would redefine climate finance and support developing countries in both adapting to the impacts of climate change and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. The idea is to create a fair, transparent system that provides more predictable and effective financial support for countries that need it the most. While many negotiators agree that more climate finance is needed, there is still some split among developed and developing countries on the amount of money, where it will come from, and the role of emerging economies in that financing.
The global goal on adaptation (GGA) is actually more of a framework than a goal, and it aims to enhance global resilience, reduce vulnerabilities, and help communities adapt to a rapidly changing climate. This framework is not just about protecting infrastructure but about safeguarding the lives and livelihoods of millions in vulnerable regions. Negotiators will continue work to develop “indicators,” such as total area of restored coastal habitats or the number of heat-related illnesses, that countries could use in measuring their progress on climate adaptation.
Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are the commitments each Party makes to meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. Governments update their NDCs every five years, with the next round due in February 2025.
The incoming NDCs will serve as a litmus test for political will to course correct on climate action. Given the current trajectory of climate change, governments face increasing pressure to set more aggressive targets – and innovative strategies to implement them – in their NDCs. Success here would greatly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions gap and catalyze greater investment in the clean energy economy.
Governments will be revealing their updated NDCs, and some will be hoping their new commitments will help them attract funding – adding a layer of tension to the financing discussions that are likely to dominate COP29.
As each successive year of climate-related natural disasters shows, the global community cannot afford to continue with the current pace of emissions and warming. At COP29, governments, financial institutions, and civil society must commit to actions that safeguard people and the planet. The good news is that they have the knowledge, tools, and resources needed to make that transformative change; in Baku, they must show the political will.
Courtney Durham Shane is a senior officer and Rebecca Harris is an associate with The Pew Charitable Trusts’ conservation support team.