U.N. Treaty Negotiators Must Choose Planet Over Plastic

In 2019, an estimated 28 million metric tons of plastic pollution entered the environment – the equivalent of more than the weight of the Titanic every day – according to a study by the Nordic Council of Ministers. The research further indicates that if the world does not act, by 2040, the annual production of new plastics will increase by 66% and the flow of plastic into the environment will have nearly doubled – both compared with 2019 levels – severely affecting human health and livelihoods, as well as natural ecosystems.

Recognizing the scale of this threat, countries are currently negotiating a global agreement on plastic pollution, known as the U.N. plastics treaty. If the nations of the world are ambitious and address the full life cycle of plastic, from production through use, reuse, recycling and ultimately to disposal, the amount of plastic released into the environment could be reduced seven-fold, from 49 million metric tons to about 7 million by 2040. In November, countries will meet for the fifth and final time to reach an agreement, and it is vital that they seize the opportunity.

Plastic enters the environment as large pieces – such as bottles and bags – and as microplastics, small pieces less than 5 millimetres in size. Microplastics are sometimes deliberately added to products, but more often they’re the product of wear and tear or fragmentation of larger plastics, including paint, tyres, recycling and textiles. Plastic pellets, the building blocks of other plastic products, are also a big source of microplastic pollution. Collectively, microplastics constitute about a third of global plastic pollution.

Plastic pollution and other emissions associated with plastic production, use and waste management are already having dire consequences. Communities living alongside plastic production facilities and those exposed to plastic pollution or the burning of plastic waste are at increased risk of disease, including asthma, childhood leukaemia, cardiovascular disease and lung cancer; flooding; and toxic emissions.

And in the marine environment, evidence of the impact of plastic pollution also abounds. For instance, every marine turtle species has been found to have ingested and become entangled in plastic pollution. It’s a case of mistaken identity – plastic bags, balloons, caps and other plastic items can look a lot like turtles’ prey, and the consequences are often fatal. Further, research suggests that blue whales – the  planet’s biggest creatures – ingest up to 10 million pieces of microplastic every day, weighing between 2.5 and 43.6 kilograms, roughly the weight of a baby hippo. And scientists predict that by 2050, 99% of all seabird species will be inadvertently eating plastic, with consequences including intestinal blockage, organ damage and death.

The plastic pollution problem is also interlinked with climate change. If plastics were a country, it would be the fifth-highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter in the world. The vast majority of plastic-related emissions occur during the production process, so if production continues to rise, the emissions will also increase. From 2019 to 2050, GHG emissions from plastic production could amount to a quarter of the planet’s remaining carbon budget – the maximum carbon that can be released into the atmosphere before global warming reaches 1.5°C and its catastrophic consequences.

But efforts to curtail these harms by realizing significant reductions in plastic pollution are at risk. Some countries are pushing for the U.N. agreement to focus only on waste management and for prevention measures to be determined at the national level rather than through global legally binding rules. The world cannot recycle its way out of this problem. Even in a best-case scenario, strategies that concentrate only on waste management will not meaningfully reduce the amount of plastic leaking into the environment, compared with current levels.

Measures to reduce the production of primary plastic polymers are among the most vital because the science is clear: Cutting plastic production and consumption will deliver the biggest reduction in plastic pollution, and with it, the greatest opportunity to lower GHG emissions. And increasingly, the nations of the world are recognizing the urgency. Since April 2024, more than 50 countries have signed the Bridge to Busan declaration – named for the location of the November 2024 Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution meeting – which calls for the plastics treaty to include a global objective on sustainable levels of plastic production.

Global plastic pollution is a pressing problem, and solving it requires governments, the private sector and civil society to swiftly implement all known solutions across the whole plastic lifecycle. The U.N. treaty is uniquely positioned to achieve this ambitious goal, so as countries enter the negotiations, it is crucial that they choose planet over plastic.

Sarah Baulch works on The Pew Charitable Trusts’ preventing ocean plastics project.